New Seat Details - Ellesmere Port and Neston

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ellesmere Port and Neston been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	33,679	60.2%
CON	19,873	35.5%
LIB	1,219	2.2%
UKIP	775	1.4%
Green	419	0.7%
LAB Majority	13,806	24.7%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Ellesmere Port and Neston: Map

List of old seats forming part of Ellesmere Port and Neston

Old seat: Chester, City of

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Chester, City of, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Chester, City of				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cheshire West and Chester	Blacon	9,977	Chester, City of	2,020	6,162	103	0	0	0	0	0	8,285
Cheshire West and Chester	Boughton	4,097	Chester, City of	1,284	1,984	64	0	0	0	0	0	3,332
Cheshire West and Chester	Chester City	2,784	Chester, City of	795	1,394	69	0	0	0	0	0	2,258
Cheshire West and Chester	Chester Villages	3,262	Chester, City of	1,439	1,011	48	0	0	0	0	0	2,498
Cheshire West and Chester	Dodleston and Huntington	3,574	Chester, City of	1,305	1,015	62	0	0	0	0	0	2,382
Cheshire West and Chester	Farndon	212	Eddisbury	88	68	4	0	0	0	0	0	160
Cheshire West and Chester	Garden Quarter	3,437	Chester, City of	1,076	2,201	82	0	0	0	0	0	3,359
Cheshire West and Chester	Great Boughton	7,192	Chester, City of	2,649	2,577	217	0	0	0	0	0	5,443
Cheshire West and Chester	Handbridge Park	7,184	Chester, City of	2,821	2,418	148	0	0	0	0	0	5,387
Cheshire West and Chester	Hoole	6,787	Chester, City of	1,916	3,432	237	0	0	0	0	0	5,585
Cheshire West and Chester	Lache	3,755	Chester, City of	1,116	2,333	58	0	0	0	0	0	3,507
Cheshire West and Chester	Little Neston and Burton	386	Ellesmere Port and Neston	140	139	7	0	0	0	0	0	286
Cheshire West and Chester	Newton	7,363	Chester, City of	2,249	3,319	230	0	0	0	0	0	5,798
Cheshire West and Chester	Saughall and Mollington	3,828	Chester, City of	1,468	1,202	38	0	0	0	0	0	2,708
Cheshire West and Chester	Upton	6,939	Chester, City of	2,480	2,766	183	0	0	0	0	0	5,429
	Total	70,777		22,846	32,021	1,550	0	0	0	0	0	56,417

The full details of these calculations are given on the Chester, City of seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ellesmere Port and Neston

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ellesmere Port and Neston, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ellesmere Port and Neston				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cheshire West and Chester	Chester Villages	1,874	Chester, City of	771	541	29	21	12	0	0	0	1,374
Cheshire West and Chester	Ellesmere Port Town	6,384	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,141	3,966	62	116	49	0	0	0	5,334
Cheshire West and Chester	Elton	3,429	Weaver Vale	1,157	1,437	25	25	9	0	0	0	2,653
Cheshire West and Chester	Grange	3,321	Ellesmere Port and Neston	573	2,143	23	26	22	0	0	0	2,787
Cheshire West and Chester	Ledsham and Manor	6,385	Ellesmere Port and Neston	2,052	2,358	104	93	13	0	0	0	4,620
Cheshire West and Chester	Little Neston and Burton	6,636	Ellesmere Port and Neston	2,311	2,184	114	90	24	0	0	0	4,723
Cheshire West and Chester	Neston	3,176	Ellesmere Port and Neston	916	1,477	62	20	24	0	0	0	2,499
Cheshire West and Chester	Netherpool	2,741	Ellesmere Port and Neston	536	1,379	18	41	15	0	0	0	1,989
Cheshire West and Chester	Parkgate	3,128	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,115	934	19	14	24	0	0	0	2,106
Cheshire West and Chester	Rossmore	2,914	Ellesmere Port and Neston	552	1,683	22	24	26	0	0	0	2,307
Cheshire West and Chester	St Paul's	6,669	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,562	3,438	123	55	18	0	0	0	5,196
Cheshire West and Chester	Strawberry	4,192	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,243	1,706	44	62	12	0	0	0	3,067
Cheshire West and Chester	Sutton	7,022	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,617	3,368	121	119	43	0	0	0	5,268
Cheshire West and Chester	Whitby	6,503	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,853	2,670	114	101	43	0	0	0	4,781
Cheshire West and Chester	Willaston and Thornton	3,270	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,349	852	12	14	8	0	0	0	2,235
	Total	67,644		18,748	30,136	892	821	342	0	0	0	50,939

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ellesmere Port and Neston seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wirral South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wirral South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wirral South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Wirral	Bebington	11,827	Wirral West and Bebington	3,115	6,329	234	0	100	0	0	0	9,778
Wirral	Bromborough	11,158	Birkenhead	2,442	6,475	238	0	95	0	0	0	9,250
Wirral	Clatterbridge	11,460	Wirral West and Bebington	4,220	4,472	268	0	87	0	0	0	9,047
Wirral	Eastham	10,872	Ellesmere Port and Neston	2,913	5,382	374	0	98	0	0	0	8,767
Wirral	Heswall	10,655	Wirral West and Bebington	4,858	3,213	209	0	74	0	0	0	8,354
	Total	55,972		17,548	25,871	1,323	0	454	0	0	0	45,196

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wirral South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ellesmere Port and Neston

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Ellesmere Port and Neston
Cheshire West and Chester	Ellesmere Port Town	7,192	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,141	3,966	62	116	49	0	0	0	5,334
Cheshire West and Chester	Grange	3,759	Ellesmere Port and Neston	573	2,143	23	26	22	0	0	0	2,787
Cheshire West and Chester	Ledsham and Manor	6,226	Ellesmere Port and Neston	2,052	2,358	104	93	13	0	0	0	4,620
Cheshire West and Chester	Little Neston and Burton	370	Chester, City of	140	139	7	0	0	0	0	0	286
Cheshire West and Chester	Little Neston and Burton	6,366	Ellesmere Port and Neston	2,311	2,184	114	90	24	0	0	0	4,723
Cheshire West and Chester	Neston	3,369	Ellesmere Port and Neston	916	1,477	62	20	24	0	0	0	2,499
Cheshire West and Chester	Netherpool	2,680	Ellesmere Port and Neston	536	1,379	18	41	15	0	0	0	1,989
Cheshire West and Chester	Parkgate	2,838	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,115	934	19	14	24	0	0	0	2,106
Cheshire West and Chester	Rossmore	3,110	Ellesmere Port and Neston	552	1,683	22	24	26	0	0	0	2,307
Cheshire West and Chester	St Paul's	7,004	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,562	3,438	123	55	18	0	0	0	5,196
Cheshire West and Chester	Strawberry	4,134	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,243	1,706	44	62	12	0	0	0	3,067
Cheshire West and Chester	Sutton	7,103	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,617	3,368	121	119	43	0	0	0	5,268
Cheshire West and Chester	Whitby	6,443	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,853	2,670	114	101	43	0	0	0	4,781
Cheshire West and Chester	Willaston and Thornton	3,013	Ellesmere Port and Neston	1,349	852	12	14	8	0	0	0	2,235
Wirral	Eastham	11,186	Wirral South	2,913	5,382	374	0	98	0	0	0	8,767
	Total	74,793		19,873	33,679	1,219	775	419	0	0	0	55,965

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ellesmere Port and Neston. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Justin Madders (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	74,793
Turnout:	74.8%

Ellesmere Port and Neston: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ellesmere Port and Neston: Overview

Introduction